A powerful El Niño event could plunge nearly 49 million additional people into acute food insecurity by the end of 2027, according to a new report by the United Nations World Food Programme (WFP). With forecasts estimating an 81% chance of a “very strong” El Niño, this climate phenomenon threatens to intensify droughts, accelerate crop failures, and push many already vulnerable communities toward severe hunger.
## Unpacking the Threat: What We Know
El Niño refers to recurring warming in the Pacific Ocean that disrupts global weather patterns. While El Niño events are frequent, the current forecasts suggest one of the strongest on record. Sea surface temperatures have reached levels unseen since at least 1982, potentially rivalling intensity associated with historic El Niños over the past 70+ years.
## Who Risks Going Hungry?
The WFP warns that the additional 49 million people projected to suffer acute hunger would be concentrated in regions already struggling with food crises. Key areas under heightened threat include:
– **Africa**, particularly in southeastern and eastern nations
– **Asia and the Pacific**, including places with seasonal agriculture and fragile supply systems
– **Latin America and the Caribbean**, especially communities dependent on rainfall and stable weather patterns
These regions are facing a dangerous combination of threats: active conflicts, economic instability, disrupted trade, and recurring weather shocks. When a strong El Niño adds drought, flooding, and erratic rainfall into the mix, food systems buckle.
## How the Forecast Plays Out
The report outlines specific risks and escalating needs:
– **Projected surge in food insecurity**: Current estimates place around 266 million people across 47 countries already facing high levels of acute hunger. The WFP suggests this number could rise significantly if the El Niño develops as predicted.
– **Damage to agricultural cycles**: Strong El Niño conditions tend to result in dry seasons in some areas and intense rainfall or flooding in others. This disrupts planting and harvesting, reducing food availability during lean periods.
– **Compounding pressures**: Conflict zones, astronomical food and fuel prices, and cuts in humanitarian funding are already undermining coping capacity. The El Niño forecast could trigger cascading failures in food production and aid delivery.
## Hunger Hotspots: Where Crisis May Escalate
A biannual “Hunger Hotspots” publication by FAO and WFP identifies 13 countries at greatest risk through November 2026. Among the worst are:
– Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen, Palestine
– Northeast Nigeria and Somalia, with specific districts facing potential famine
– Other very-high-concern areas include Afghanistan and the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo
In Sudan alone, more than 19 million people are already in a high acute food insecurity state, with some 200,000 projected to face famine conditions in certain regions if the season worsens.
## Time Is Running Out: The Case for Urgent Action
The WFP and FAO have launched a joint appeal seeking $202 million to protect nearly 9 million people across 22 priority countries. This appeal includes anticipatory measures—such as early cash assistance, seed distribution, and water conservation—to stave off the worst outcomes. Without rapid funding, the suffering will intensify, particularly during seasonal lean periods.
## What’s Different This Time?
What sets the current event apart:
– **Record-breaking sea surface temperature anomalies** as strong indicators of an intense El Niño phase.
– **Reduced coping capacity** in many vulnerable regions due to back-to-back climatic shocks, conflict, and rising costs.
– **Constrained funding**: International aid for food, nutrition, and emergency agriculture has declined sharply—by nearly 59% between 2022 and 2025—eroding resilience just when it’s most needed.
## Moving Forward: Mitigation & Preparedness
To prevent the predicted surge in acute hunger, experts emphasize:
– **Scaling up early action programs** before the worst weather hits—investing in resilience, delivering seed and livestock support, and improving water management.
– **Ensuring predictable funding** for humanitarian responses, especially in the most endangered hotspots.
– **Supporting local agriculture** and supply chains so communities are less dependent on imports or erratic weather.
– **Monitoring and targeted assistance** using alert systems like IPC (Integrated Food Security Phase Classification) to identify and respond to risk zones quickly.
## The Bottom Line
A potentially very strong El Niño is forecast with increasing confidence, and the implications for global hunger are severe. Nearly 49 million more people could fall into acute food insecurity by the end of next year, especially in regions already facing insecure food systems. Conflict, economic pressure, climate shocks, and funding shortfalls all amplify the risk. Without strong, timely global responses—including anticipatory aid and scaled humanitarian support—the situation could deteriorate rapidly.
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