In volatile trading sessions this week, negotiations between Iran and the U.S., along with major corporate earnings from Sandisk and Block, have shifted investor focus. What’s moving the markets spans international diplomacy, memory-chip guidance, fintech forecasts, and data on U.S. employment and service-sector activity.
## Mixed Signals From U.S. Stock Futures
As markets opened Thursday, U.S. futures fluctuated amid uncertainty over geopolitical developments and a sparse flow of earnings reports.
Dow Jones futures climbed about 0.2%, the S&P 500 futures rose similarly, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped slightly.
On Wednesday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average posted a gain of 263 points (0.5%), the S&P 500 edged down 0.2%, and the Nasdaq Composite slid approximately 0.8%. The tech sector bore much of the pressure, with SpaceX facing investor resistance over its ambitious artificial intelligence spending, and Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) falling after Musk said SpaceX would not purchase its cutting-edge processors.
Alongside equities, economic data painted a mixed picture: ADP reported fewer-than-expected private-sector jobs added in July, yet wages rose sharply for those who changed jobs. The U.S. services sector showed growth in new orders and production, even as hiring lagged and inflation ticked higher. All eyes now turn to Friday’s major jobs report for clearer guidance.
## Iran-U.S. Negotiations and Strait of Hormuz Dispute
Diplomatic efforts between the U.S. and Iran resumed prominence amid suggestions this week that a peace deal could be nearing agreement—though no final deal has emerged yet. President Trump stated talks were progressing well, but U.S. officials reiterated that any accord must not grant Iran control over access to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global energy flows.
A proposed arrangement between Iran and Oman has come under scrutiny after both agreed on geographic coordinates for a shipping route through the Strait. According to Iran’s Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei, this route was approved, sparking concerns in Washington.
An Iranian official reportedly seeks fees of up to 7% of cargo prices for ships passing through the Gulf—an approach that conflicts with pre-war protocol, which allowed commercial vessels unfettered access without charges.
Geopolitical tensions remain a key driver of oil prices, which dipped 0.3% after earlier volatility. Investors fear cross-border instability may spur inflation and force central banks toward tighter policy.
## Sandisk’s Bumping Revenue Forecast
Sandisk, a major supplier of flash memory products essential for AI infrastructure, disappointed markets with its revenue outlook for fiscal Q1 2027. It forecast sales between $10.3 billion and $10.8 billion—just shy of the $10.62 billion consensus among analysts. It also projected adjusted earnings per share between $44.00 and $46.00, compared to forecasts of $44.21.
Despite an explosive fiscal Q4, where revenue jumped 51% sequentially and 372% year-over-year—driven by stronger pricing and shipment volumes—Sandisk shares fell more than 9% in premarket trading. The company’s GAAP net income surged to $6.90 billion, or $43.97 per diluted share, up from a $23 million loss, or $0.16 per share, the previous year.
Even with its share buyback program expanding and extraordinary growth delivered, investors appeared to judge the guidance as not exceeding lofty expectations enough to sustain the stock’s year-to-date rally—which has now surpassed 390%.
## Block Raises Expectations, But Investors Want More
Fintech firm Block—maker of Square, Afterpay, and Cash App—raised its full-year 2026 adjusted profit forecast from $3.85 to $4.02 per share, citing sturdier-than-expected consumer spending and strong results at Cash App.
Block beat consensus estimates on both revenue and profit for the previous quarter, and provided an outlook for the current quarter’s adjusted earnings that also topped expectations.
Still, analysts at Vital Knowledge sounded cautious: although the revised outlook was positive, expectations had been higher, and the upgrade fell short of what some were hoping for. Block shares slipped slightly before the market opened.
## Moderna Wins FDA OK for mRNA Flu Vaccine
In health sector news, Moderna secured FDA approval for mFLUSIVA, its first mRNA-based influenza vaccine for adults aged 50 and older. The vaccine also became Moderna’s fourth FDA-approved product and its fifth globally.
Approval came after phase 3 trials involving 40,805 older adults across 11 countries, supplemented by a separate U.S. trial of 2,992 participants aged 65 and above. For the oldest group, approval was accelerated based on immune response data; confirmatory studies will follow in post-marketing phases. The vaccine is expected to reach select U.S. retailers in coming weeks ahead of the 2026–2027 respiratory season.
## Heading Into the Jobs Report
Markets seem to be waiting for Friday’s non-farm payrolls report—the week’s most awaited economic data point. After mixed signals from ADP and service sector metrics, this jobs report could heavily influence expectations around inflation, wage pressures, and federal interest rate policy.
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