SOURCE :- THE AGE NEWS
The rapid escalation in the conflict between India and Pakistan will come as little surprise to anyone familiar with the history of India’s relations with Pakistan since their violent and bloody partition into two nations following independence from Britain in 1947.
They’ve been at loggerheads ever since, with tensions occasionally boiling into armed conflict. The main focus of the rivalry is Kashmir, an area of the Himalayas that both India and Pakistan claim in its entirety while governing separate parts.
The latest conflict was triggered by a deadly attack on tourists in Kashmir on April 22.
Within 48 hours of that attack, India had downgraded diplomatic ties with Pakistan in protest and vowed to suspend a crucial water-sharing treaty, while Pakistan had banned Indian planes from its airspace and halted cross-border trade.
What happened on April 22?
Gunmen opened fire in the Baisaran Valley, a popular tourist attraction in Kashmir’s Pahalgam area, on the afternoon of April 22, killing 26 people and wounding several others before fleeing into the surrounding pine forests.
Why does India say Pakistan is involved?
India said it had identified the three April 22 attackers, including two Pakistani nationals, as “terrorists” waging a violent revolt against Indian rule in Muslim-majority Kashmir.
India has long accused Pakistan of helping Islamist separatists who have battled security forces in its part of the territory. Islamabad denies those accusations.
Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif.Credit: AP
How has Pakistan responded?
Pakistan denied any involvement in the April 22 attack, and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif called for a transparent, credible and neutral investigation. He also urged the United States to impress upon India to “dial down the rhetoric and act responsibly”.
The head of the Pakistan-administered region of Kashmir called for international mediation and said his administration was preparing a humanitarian response in case of further escalation.
What is the latest?
India, in what it called “Operation Sindoor”, fired missiles into Pakistani-controlled territory in several locations early on Wednesday, May 7 (Pakistani time), targeting nine sites it said were used by militants planning attacks on India. Pakistan said eight people were killed, including a child. It claims to have shot down five Indian planes in retaliation.
At least three civilians were also killed in shelling by Pakistani troops in Indian-controlled Kashmir, the Indian army said.
There have been heavy exchanges of fire between both armies along the Line of Control, which divides the disputed region of Kashmir between India and Pakistan.
South Asia analyst Michael Kugelman said the missile strikes were some of the highest intensity from India in years and that Pakistan’s response would “surely pack a punch as well”.
“These are two strong militaries that, even with nuclear weapons as a deterrent, are not afraid to deploy sizeable levels of conventional military force against each other,” Kugelman said. “The escalation risks are real. And they could well increase, and quickly.”
Why do India and Pakistan distrust each other?
At independence, the countries were split along religious lines, with Pakistan becoming predominantly Muslim and India choosing secular democracy for its mostly Hindu population. The drawing of new borders by the British uprooted almost 14 million people and resulted in sectarian violence that killed as many as 1 million.
India and Pakistan have fought wars since then, two of them over Kashmir, with scores of skirmishes in between. Pakistan’s leaders have seen India as an existential threat since the partition; some think India still harbours hopes of reversing the split.
Residents and media in a building damaged by a suspected Indian missile attack near Muzaffarabad, Pakistan, on Wednesday.Credit: AP
Indian intelligence services have linked a succession of terrorist attacks carried out between 2001 and 2019 to Pakistan. Former Pakistan prime minister Imran Khan vowed to curb militant groups, but failed. The country’s civilian leaders have little power to shape foreign and security policy, which is largely controlled by the army and Inter-Services Intelligence spy agency.
What’s so special about Kashmir?
At the time of partition, India and Pakistan courted the subcontinent’s various kingdoms (which were only indirectly ruled by the British) to join their fledgling nations. The Hindu ruler of Muslim-majority Jammu and Kashmir dithered. Pakistan sponsored an invasion by irregular fighters, India intervened, and the two countries fought to a stalemate.
Today, they face off along a 740-kilometre de facto boundary known as the Line of Control, one of the world’s most militarised zones. The region also includes two areas that are controlled by China and claimed by India.
New Delhi accuses Islamabad of sponsoring militants active in Kashmir, while Pakistan says India’s government mistreats Kashmir’s Muslims and has described the militants as freedom fighters. India’s government says they have been trained and funded by Pakistan’s military, and that their leaders continue to live freely in Pakistan.
In 2019, New Delhi moved to tighten its control over Kashmir by revoking constitutional guarantees and flooding the region with more soldiers. In recent years, the area known for its dramatic mountain landscapes and lush valleys has become popular with tourists again.
Could India and Pakistan really go to war again?
A full-scale war on multiple fronts would break with decades of precedent. Both countries’ governments are aware of the dangers of escalation, and world powers have in the past convinced them to back away from hostilities, aware of the risk that either side might reach for its nuclear missiles.
Thousands were killed in the wars of 1947 and 1965, while conflicts since then have been more contained. Fighting in Kashmir’s Kargil region in 1999 ended after less than three months following intense pressure on Pakistan by the US and a threat to withdraw International Monetary Fund loans to Islamabad.
Flare-ups in recent years have been even more short-lived. In 2019, India launched air strikes within Pakistan’s borders for the first time in decades and, even after an aerial dogfight, both countries de-escalated tensions swiftly.
What are the prospects of a reconciliation between India and Pakistan?
A more substantial rapprochement appears unlikely. India’s stance on Pakistan has become more intransigent under the leadership of Hindu nationalist Prime Minister Narendra Modi, and India has said it will start peace talks only if Pakistan cracks down on militant groups that threaten India’s security.
Even if Pakistan’s civilian government wanted to bury hostilities, it would first need to win over a military establishment that’s consistently spurned any such move. Pakistan’s military has in the past suggested that it would be open to allowing transit through the north of the country to India from Afghanistan and Central Asia, but withdrew the idea after Modi removed Kashmir’s “special status” constitutional guarantees in 2019. Since then, Pakistan has said any peace talks can only happen after that decision is reversed.
The strategic stand-off between the US and China may also have reduced the impetus to improve ties. In the past few years, India has moved closer to the US, while Pakistan – historically a partner for Washington on security matters – has shifted towards Beijing’s orbit as China invested billions of dollars in the country’s infrastructure under its Belt and Road initiative.
What have world leaders said since April 22?
After an initial wave of condemnations of the attack on tourists, world leaders have called for both sides to avoid escalation.
International pressure has been piling on both New Delhi and Islamabad to ease tensions. Senior officials from the United States, China, Russia and Saudi Arabia have urged both sides to exercise restraint. Iran has offered to mediate.
Meanwhile, both nations have launched an aggressive diplomatic campaign to shore up support for their positions.
India has made efforts to highlight what it called the “cross-border link” to the attack by briefing diplomats of dozens of countries.
“The diplomatic outreach this time has been quite extensive and the idea for India would be to showcase whatever evidence it has to its partners and to make a case that whatever actions might be coming from its side has the support of its partners and allies,” said Harsh Pant, the foreign policy head at the Observer Research Foundation think tank in New Delhi.
Pakistan has offered to co-operate with an international investigation into the attack and reached out to dozens of foreign diplomats. Islamabad, however, said that it would match or exceed any military action by India.
