SOURCE :- THE AGE NEWS
In a repeat of his first presidency, Donald Trump has chosen to visit Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar for his inaugural overseas visit, and significantly, bypass Israel on his four-day trip.
In part, this is because he is keen to maximise the US’s ability to benefit from hydro-carbon resource wealth and lucrative markets of the region, and not let their regional strategic partner, Israel, stand in the way. Another reason for the visit is almost certainly to thank Qatar for their most recent gift to the United States government – a $US400 million ($622 million) luxury jet Trump plans to keep when he leaves office.
President Donald Trump and Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman shake hands in Riyadh on Tuesday.Credit: AP
But this visit is not like that of a usual dignitary or foreign power passing through. As a transactional leader, Trump is set to transform the Middle East according to his Make America Great Again dictum.
Although still committed to the security of the state of Israel, Trump has found its prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, too trigger-happy in getting the US involved in Israel’s regional conflicts. Thus, his relationship with the prime minister has taken a back-seat to America’s wider regional interests.
During a speech in Riyadh, the Saudi capital, Trump outlined his vision for remaking the region, saying, “As I have shown repeatedly, I am willing to end past conflicts and forge new partnerships for a better and more stable world, even if our differences may be very profound.”
Trump wants to strengthen ties with Saudi Arabia and the kingdom’s de facto ruler, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who has engaged in social modernisation in proximity to Trump’s liking.
Though MBS, as bin Salman is known, was shaken by Joe Biden’s regional plan (an “Israel-first” policy and withdrawal from Afghanistan), the crown prince engaged in diversifying Saudi foreign relations by joining the BRICS forum for emerging economies, strengthening ties with China and improving relations with Iran.
While impressed by bin Salman making trillion-dollar trade, investment and defence deals, Trump has de-emphasised the importance of a healthy relationship between Saudi Arabia and Israel (something he previously advocated for). So much so that Trump has expressed a willingness to help Saudi Arabia establish a nuclear program.
Similarly, the US leader now prioritises a de facto alliance with the UAE over Israel’s strategic partnership. The Emirates’ financial and economic relations with, as well as its military purchases from, the US compensate considerably for aid the US provides Israel. The same goes for Qatar, which hosts the largest US military base in the region and played a critical role in securing the release of American-Israeli hostages from Hamas’ captivity.
Meanwhile, Trump has reached out in his own way to Iran for a resolution of the dispute over its controversial nuclear program, warning Tehran to either negotiate a deal that would prevent them producing nuclear weapons or face America’s military might.
Iran is second only to Saudi Arabia in oil reserves and strategically very important in the region. This imperative has been missing in America’s calculations since the advent of the Iranian Islamic regime more than four decades ago, and the hostility has driven Tehran into strategic cooperation with two of America’s global adversaries, China and Russia.
Although weakened in its regional influence by Israel’s recent actions against Iran-backed Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon, as well as the overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria, Iran continues to be a crucial player.
Should current negotiations between the US and Iran result in a nuclear deal – somewhat like the 2015 Iran nuclear agreement Trump withdrew the US from in 2018 largely at the urging of Netanyahu – it would be a major gain for both sides.
Trump is also seeking to bring other actors in the region into his deal-making equation. Earlier this month, he announced a ceasefire between the US and the Yemeni Houthis, despite being designated as a terrorist group targeting ships bound for Israel. He also announced plans to lift sanctions on Syria and met with their Islamist president, Ahmad al-Sharaa, to the resentment of Israel.
Along with the US’s influence on Israel’s American aid-dependent neighbours, Egypt and Jordan, these developments place the Middle East on the verge of major transformation.
Netanyahu may try to undermine some of Trump’s moves, but the Israel-centric regional order that he has wished for is in the process of shifting towards something that looks much more MAGA-orientated than he had bargained for.
Amin Saikal is emeritus professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies at the Australian National University, adjunct professor of Social Sciences at the University of Western Australia, and Vice Chancellor’s Strategic Fellow at Victoria University.
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