Source : ABC NEWS
Houses have been trained down, the toughest preseason ever has been completed and the 2026 NRL season is nearly upon us.
With 17 teams all dreaming big, it’s the time of the year when hope springs eternal across the league.
As the preseason challenge ramps up and the season openers in Las Vegas get ever closer, here’s the key factor that will define your team’s chances of making an impact in 2026.
Brisbane Broncos
The defending premiers were easy on the eye through their incredible run to the 2025 premiership and, counting finals matches, they ended the season first in the league for points, line breaks and tackle breaks.
Given the attacking talent at their disposal they’ll again be one of the most dangerous teams in the league as they defend their title but there’s a chance they could be even more dynamic this time around.
Ezra Mam only started 10 matches last year due to injury and suspension and could provide a further element of brilliance to a Brisbane attack that’s already got plenty of it.
An unsung hero off the bench in the grand final win over Melbourne, Mam can give an already crackerjack Broncos side even more attacking class with his speed, footwork and combination with Reece Walsh.
Canberra Raiders
The Raiders are a uniquely constructed team and rely on halfback play less than most sides in the NRL but over the past four seasons there’s been no question that Jamal Fogarty was the straw that stirs the lime milk drink.
Even before last year’s minor premiership campaign, whenever the Raiders had Fogarty in the side since recruiting him from Gold Coast they played to the level of a top six team. Over four years, they won 63 per cent of their matches with Fogarty in the side.
It means there’s plenty of pressure on 22-year old Ethan Sanders to replace the newly minted Manly playmaker, especially in the kicking game — Fogarty took over 70 per cent of Canberra’s general play kicks last year.
But the former Eel has a stable and quality squad around him and if he can consistently link with the likes of Ethan Strange and Kaeo Weekes, the Raiders should be able to hold off any major regression and return to the finals.
Canterbury Bulldogs
Few clubs deal in institutional memory like Canterbury, be it as “The Family Club” or the various bone-chewing forward packs who have inherited the “Dogs of War” mantle over the years.
But for the third year in a row, the Bulldogs will enter a season without a single player on the roster who has played 100 games for the club. Matt Burton (95) and Max King (94) will both hit the milestone early on, but it’s unusual to see a club so tied to its own traditions go this long without such a milestone.
It’s a testament to the all-encompassing nature of the rebuild the club has undertaken in recent years but it also heightens expectations for their fourth season under Cameron Ciraldo.
This is a team that has been constructed to the exact specifications of those who built it, right down to the acquisition of Lachlan Galvin, the decision to extend Bailey Heyward over Reed Mahoney and the big-money signing of Leo Thompson.
The Bulldogs have picked all their own ingredients, let it simmer for a while and now, after back-to-back finals berths that have yet to yield a playoff win, it’s time to eat.
Cronulla Sharks
There is no team in the NRL more settled than Cronulla, but this season could prove to be the current playing group’s last unless they can deliver the premiership the Sharks faithful crave.
The wrap on Craig Fitzgibbon’s side for several years now has been they’re a very good side who haven’t quite found a way to become a great one. Back-to-back preliminary final exits is the kind of success some clubs would kill for, but getting over the final hill has proven most difficult for the Sharks.
And if that doesn’t happen this year, it could lead to a roster revamp. Cronulla has six players from its top 17 — Will Kennedy, Sione Katoa, Cam McInnes, Jesse Ramien, Toby Rudolf and Siosifa Talakai — off-contract this year.
The Sharks are clearly comfortable with what they’ve got — as the only team in the league that hasn’t made a major signing this year — and it’s easy to see why given it’s taken them to the edge of glory several times over.
The final step is often the hardest to take but if the Sharks can’t go that last and longest yard, expect plenty of new faces in the Shire next time around.
Dolphins
It’s not exactly breaking news to say the Dolphins were good in attack in 2025. The competition’s youngest club were the neutrals’ delight on the back of Isaiya Katoa, Herbie Farnworth, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow and Kodi Nikorima doing just about whatever they wanted with ball in hand.
But to get a full measure of just how dangerous they were, we need to zoom out a little bit because what the Phins were doing was historic.
Across the regular season in 2025 the Dolphins scored 721 points, the ninth-most of any team in the history of Australian rugby league going all the way back to 1908.
Every other team alongside the Dolphins inside that top 10 finished in the top four while Kristian Woolf’s side is still waiting for the first finals berth in club history.
With all the main players from last year’s attacking bacchanal returning, crossing that threshold feels eminently possible.
Gold Coast Titans
It doesn’t take a clever football mind to ascertain that Des Hasler’s two seasons with Gold Coast were a disaster — if they weren’t, he (not Josh Hannay) would still be coach of the Titans.
But the Hasler years weren’t just a struggle for the club, they sent the team backwards. After winning nine games in 2023 they dropped to eight in 2024 and went down again to six last year and in their two seasons under Hasler across 54 regular season rounds, the Titans were in the top eight for three weeks total.
Gold Coast is a club that perpetually seems to be starting again — without a winning season since 2010, despite sneaking into the finals twice since then — but the Titans had more ability than what they showed under the two-time premiership winner.
Hannay has plenty of work to do but there’s also a solid foundation in the likes of Tino Fa’asuamaleaui, Keano Kini, Jayden Campbell and Beau Fermor.
The struggle won’t end overnight, but there is a little more to this roster than what they’ve produced in recent years.
Manly Sea Eagles
Daly Cherry-Evans was the solid ground on which Manly built its last decade and losing the most capped player in club history plunges the Sea Eagles into something of an existential crisis.
For the first time since 1985, the Sea Eagles will enter a season without a single player on the roster who has won a premiership with the club.
Cherry-Evans was not just an unerringly consistent halfback, as the last man standing from the 2011 grand final victory he was the last on-field link to the club’s most recent glory days, which made him vital to their culture and identity.
Manly aren’t just trying to replace one of its best players of modern times but also trying to find a fresh way to connect to the club’s storied history to try to create a new chapter within it. For that to happen, new halfback Jamal Fogarty has to stick his landing at Brookvale.
Rugby league history is filled with horror stories of clubs losing decades trying to find a replacement for a legendary halfback — think Canberra after Ricky Stuart, Parramatta after Peter Sterling or Newcastle after Andrew Johns — and right now the Sea Eagles are staring over the edge of that cliff, hoping they don’t fall in.
Melbourne Storm
Run out the names of Melbourne’s full-time fullbacks over the years and it’s less of a list than an honour roll.
Throughout their near 30-year history, the Storm have been blessed with an ungodly amount of talent and consistency at the back. It is a star-making position — Billy Slater, Robbie Ross, Cameron Munster and the departed Ryan Papenhuyzen are the only men to play 50 games or more at fullback for Melbourne.
That’s to say nothing of the players who have filled in for a few games here or there over the years, like Greg Inglis, Jahrome Hughes or Scott Drinkwater. Simply put, when it comes to fullbacks the Storm never miss.
Which is why Sua Fa’alogo, who’s gunning to replace Papenhuyzen, has a lot to live up to. The 22-year-old is a sizzling ball-runner who’s tantalised in the two seasons since his debut and if Melbourne is to continue its winning ways, Fa’alogo needs to convert the promise into production from the jump.
New Zealand Warriors
Luke Metcalf had the weight of a nation on his shoulders in 2025 and he didn’t just welcome the challenge, he rose to it magnificently.
The Warriors halfback was the main man behind his side’s charge into the top four and found himself among the Dally M leaders when he suffered a season-ending knee injury in June.
Had Metcalf stayed fit, his and New Zealand’s season could have taken a very different path and his speed, playmaking abilities and relish of game-winning situations will again be on show when he returns in round seven.
However, the 26-year old’s injury history is cause for concern. In three seasons with the Warriors, Metcalf has managed just 35 matches due to a hamstring problem, a broken leg and an ACL tear.
The silver lining is that the three injuries aren’t linked but the Warriors’ chances of improving on last year’s finals finish are directly tied to Metcalf’s injury luck turning around.
Newcastle Knights
Regardless of whether Dylan Brown can live up to the enormous expectations that come alongside the biggest contract in rugby league history, the incoming playmaker should give Newcastle something they haven’t had in the halves for a long time — a measure of stability.
Since the start of the 2022 season the Knights have changed their halves combination 38 times. Injuries and suspensions have taken their toll, as they would on any club, but for the most part Newcastle has cycled through the same half-dozen names in an effort to find something that sticks.
In Brown, the Knights have their most talented halves player since Mitchell Pearce and with Sandon Smith seemingly in front to partner him at the scrumbase they have a pair that’s more dangerous and reliable than anything they’ve had at halfback and five-eighth in some time.
There’s plenty for new coach Justin Holbrook to do as he attempts to take Newcastle off the bottom of the ladder but nailing a consistent and dangerous halves combination is an excellent place to start.
North Queensland Cowboys
Jason Taumalolo has been a popular punching bag for those looking for a reason behind North Queensland’s underwhelming results in recent years with the 10-year, $10 million contract he signed back in 2017 making him an easy target.
When Taumalolo signed that deal he was one of the best forwards of his generation and while a decade on he’s not quite that force that moved earth and heaven, the Tongan international is still a world-shaker when he can stay on the field.
Injuries restricted him to just 10 games last season, but the Cowboys still rely on the 32-year-old tremendously. When Taumalolo played in 2025 the Cowboys had a winning record (six wins to four losses) and they won just three of 14 games without him.
With Tom Dearden, Scott Drinkwater and Jaxon Purdue on hand, points will rarely be an issue for North Queensland but unless they can find some starch to support Taumalolo, or at least ease their dependence on him, it could be another lost season in the north.
Parramatta Eels
A popular pick to make the finals this year, Parramatta has undergone a tremendous amount of change in a very short time.
In a little under two seasons since long-time coach Brad Arthur was sacked, the Eels have wasted no time in remaking their team on the fly.
Only five players from the team who played in the first game after Arthur’s dismissal are still at the club.
Jason Ryles put his stamp on the team by backing youngsters like fullback Isaiah Iongi and hooker Ryley Smith while also revamping the careers of recruits like Josh Addo-Carr and Jack Williams and club stalwart Junior Paulo.
If Mitchell Moses can stay fit and combine well with one-season wonder Jonah Pezet, Parramatta’s willingness to embrace change could well end with their first semifinal berth in four years.
Penrith Panthers
The Panthers are in an unfamiliar position heading in 2026 for two reasons. For one, this is the first time in six years they’re coming into a season off something less than a grand final berth the year before.
Throughout that period of success, cashed-up rivals wanting a piece of what made the Panthers great have picked the eyes out of the team time and again, but at last it has slowed down.
For the first time since their dynasty began, regeneration will not be a priority given the Panthers have 16 of their top 17 returning from last year, with utility Brad Schneider the only man moving on.
They don’t need to blood a new face in a key position and aren’t trying to fill the space left behind by a departing premiership hero.
The Panthers proved themselves the masters of rebuilding the engine while the machine was still moving during their four straight premierships.
This year, we’ll get to see what it’s like when they have a continuity the club has not enjoyed in more than half a decade.
South Sydney Rabbitohs
Ever since Latrell Mitchell joined Souths from the Sydney Roosters six years ago, the Rabbitohs’ world has revolved around him as their brightest star.
When Mitchell has played, Souths look like they can take on anyone in the league. When he doesn’t, things can get bad quickly. The issue is when there’s more of the latter than there is the former, and it’s happened more times than anyone at Redfern would like.
Despite playing six seasons at Redfern compared to four at Bondi, Mitchell has still played more games as a Rooster (96) than as a Rabbitoh (86).
Due to injuries, suspensions and rep commitments, he’s never played more than 20 games in a season for Souths.
His move from fullback to the less physically demanding centre position could mean he plays more football through the season and, no matter where he is on the field, more Latrell Mitchell can only be a good thing for the Rabbitohs.
St George Illawarra Dragons
It was a mixed year for Shane Flanagan’s Dragons in 2025 — they beat three of the sides that finished in the top four, including both grand finalists, but finished all the way down in 15th.
They blooded a host of young forwards who look to have impressive futures but an injury crisis meant they used 33 players — only wooden spooners Newcastle and Penrith, who rested their entire top 17 for the final round, handed out more jerseys.
The Red V did co-lead the league in one intriguing category — close results. The Dragons played in 12 games decided by one score or less, winning four of those matches and losing eight.
Turning some of those narrow defeats into narrow victories will be key to any improvement St George Illawarra can expect in its third year under Flanagan with the recruitment of halfback Daniel Atkinson from Cronulla shaping as the major catalyst for a possible turnaround.
Sydney Roosters
The Roosters find themselves at an intriguing crossroads, seemingly with everything they need to make a premiership charge and Sam Walker will be at the heart of it.
His ability to co-exist with Daly Cherry-Evans shapes as the key for the year and he appears ready to take the next step.
The last time he played a full season at halfback, the Roosters were one of the most prolific attacking sides ever seen in Australian rugby league — their 738 points in 2024 is the seventh most any team has scored in a single year.
A repeat of that kind of form feels possible, but if the Tricolours are to go all the way their attack must be a little more efficient. The Roosters led the league in errors last year and have been top four in that category every year since 2021.
That’s not to say they need to shut up shop — whenever a team can attack like they do, a few dropped balls is the cost of doing business. But if Trent Robinson’s side can temper their brilliance just a little it feels as though mighty things are possible.
Wests Tigers
Remember 2018? We were all so much younger then. Game of Thrones was still on TV, nobody had heard of COVID-19 and the set restart rule was just a glint in Peter V’landys’s eye.
It was so long ago that Ivan Cleary was still coach of Wests Tigers and from round four to six of that year his team won three matches in a row. Those games eight years ago are the last time the Tigers won three consecutive games.
There have been plenty of hard times in the years since for the joint venture but they enter 2026 with renewed optimism after breaking their run of wooden spoons last season.
Under Benji Marshall, they’re aiming to end the club’s long-standing finals drought, which is now up to 15 seasons.
If they’re to do so, a greater consistency must be the name of the game and they cannot afford to go another year without a three-match winning streak.
