New Delhi, August 30, 2024 — A deep depression over the Saurashtra region of Gujarat has led to severe flooding in parts of the state, as heavy rains continue to lash the area. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has warned that the system is likely to intensify into a cyclonic storm named Asna over the northeast Arabian Sea by Friday. The situation remains critical, with extremely heavy rainfall expected to persist in isolated parts of Saurashtra and Kutch until Friday, after which a gradual decrease in intensity is anticipated.
Meteorological Insights
According to a senior IMD official, the deep depression has been sustained over Saurashtra for several days and is now moving towards the Arabian Sea, where conditions are favorable for further intensification. “The system will gain energy from the warm ocean waters and is expected to be refueled as it progresses. Wind shear is low, and the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is currently in a favorable position, all of which contribute to the likelihood of the depression intensifying into a cyclone,” the official explained.
Although it is uncommon for a weather system that originates over land to develop into a cyclone after moving into the ocean, this phenomenon is not unprecedented. Historical records indicate that similar transitions have occurred twice before, with depressions that emerged over Saurashtra eventually intensifying into cyclones over the Arabian Sea.
Impact on Eastern and Southern India
Meanwhile, a low-pressure system over Central and North Bay of Bengal is expected to bring very heavy to extremely heavy rainfall to several states in the eastern and southern parts of India. Odisha, Coastal Karnataka, Kerala, and Mahe are likely to experience the most intense downpours, while North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Telangana can expect heavy to very heavy rainfall over the next two to three days.
Rainfall in Northwest India
The capital region of Delhi-NCR has also been affected, with intermittent spells of heavy rain recorded. Meteorologists predict that rainfall in the region will taper off over the next two days but will pick up again from September 1, when the monsoon trough is expected to return to its normal position. “We can anticipate isolated heavy to very heavy rain over Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and Punjab on September 2 and 3,” said Mahesh Palawat, Vice President of Climate and Meteorology at Skymet Weather.
Rainfall Statistics Since June
India has seen a mixed monsoon season so far, with a 7% excess in rainfall recorded nationwide since June 1. Central India has experienced a significant 17% excess, while Peninsular India recorded an 18% surplus. Conversely, east and northeast India have faced an 11% rainfall deficit. August alone saw a 15.9% excess in rainfall across the country, with northwest India receiving a staggering 31.4% more rain than usual.
However, the monsoon’s distribution has been uneven. For example, while northwest India overall has received 76% more rain than average since June, regions like Jammu & Kashmir, Ladakh, Punjab, Himachal Pradesh, and Haryana have experienced significant deficits ranging from 16% to 29%.
Monsoon Activity and Cyclone Formation
IMD Director General M. Mohapatra noted that the monsoon is currently in an “extremely active” phase across the country. “Two major weather systems—one over Rajasthan and another over Gangetic West Bengal—are contributing to the widespread heavy rainfall. Gujarat, in particular, has already been hit by extremely heavy rains, and we expect this trend to continue in east India as well. Sporadic rain and thundershowers will affect Delhi-NCR, Haryana, and Punjab throughout the week, with rainfall expected to intensify further,” Mohapatra stated.
The development of cyclonic storms over the Arabian Sea during August is a rare meteorological event. Between 1891 and 2023, only three such storms have formed in this region during August, in the years 1976, 1964, and 1944. These storms exhibited unusual behavior, with some systems developing over Odisha, moving across the Indian subcontinent, and emerging into the Arabian Sea before looping back and weakening near the Oman coast.
Similarly, the Bay of Bengal has witnessed 28 such systems over the last 132 years during the month of August, underscoring the unusual but not unheard-of nature of these weather events.
As the situation develops, authorities and residents in the affected regions are advised to remain vigilant and take necessary precautions to minimize the impact of the severe weather conditions.
