How a former Orbán ally toppled the populist right-wing leader

Budapest: A young woman summed up the key issue for her in the Hungarian election, a few hours before the polling stations closed.

“Corruption,” she said, speaking to this masthead in a park in Budapest.

She did not want her name revealed because she works in the public service and feared she could lose her job if she criticised the prime minister, Viktor Orbán.

But she said corruption was the key issue because it was linked to the economy and, therefore, the frustration with Orbán over his 16 years as prime minister.

“The economy is not free,” she said. “Money from the public, from the budget, flows into private foundations. The tenders for public services are written for the companies that are friends of the government.”

Other voters also nominated corruption as their concern. One, Orsolya, would not give her family name. She said Orbán and his friends had done well while the economy struggled.

“After 16 years, your campaign is supposed to be, ‘Look at what we did’,” she said. “And they have nothing to show. In Orbán’s speeches, he was looking for someone to blame.”

It is tempting to see Orbán’s defeat as a seismic shift against the populist right because he became the chief proponent of this kind of politics – conservative on the economy, tough on migration, strong on family values and hostile to the “woke” left.

This is how Orbán became an inspiration for US President Donald Trump and a flag-bearer for movements across Europe.

But the key issues in the campaign were more practical than philosophical. The next prime minister, Peter Magyar, is not promising to return to more lenient migration policies.

He is a conservative party leader and was previously a member of Orbán’s party. The key issue that turned him against Orbán was a corruption scandal in early 2024.

Magyar, 45, was once married to Orbán’s former justice minister, Judit Varga. He leaked a voice recording of her that revealed a decision by the Hungarian president to pardon a key official who had covered up a sex abuse scandal in a home for children.

This turned Magyar into a champion for integrity in politics. He also offered a more inclusive message than Orbán, who drew scorn for banning Budapest Pride last year, but did not win on a progressive agenda.

The practical issues dominated. One was Europe. Orbán criticised the European Union so much that he fell out with its leaders on substantial issues that put funding at risk. Billions of dollars in money from Brussels was frozen.

Orbán went too far: it is one thing to complain about Brussels; it is another to deprive your own country of large amounts of money. Magyar will be able to unfreeze the cash.

Another issue was Russia. Voters worried that Orbán was too close to Russian President Vladimir Putin. One of the stories of the election campaign was the exposure of conversations between Orbán’s foreign minister and Putin’s foreign minister.

This opened deep wounds in Hungary, which was invaded by Russian troops in 1956 and did not regain full sovereignty until 1991. Orbán was taunted as a Kremlin puppet. (Magyar has to navigate this carefully; Hungary relies on Russian oil that comes through a pipeline that crosses Ukraine.)

There is no surprise about another key issue: the economy. Growth fell to just 0.4 per cent last year and Orbán was held responsible. One voter on Sunday told this masthead that he believed Hungary had fallen behind other countries that emerged from communism.

Poland grew 3.6 per cent last year, for instance. That shows the Orbán model was not working on one of the most important tasks of government.

Orbán tried finding ways to overcome these problems. He blamed the Ukraine war. He claimed Donald Trump would back the Hungarian economy (and the US president helped with a social media message promising to do so). He complained about foreign spy agencies interfering in the Hungarian election. He ran a scare campaign against Magyar, claiming he was too close to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and would drag Hungary into war.

None of this, and not even the gerrymandering in the electoral system, was enough to save Orbán from voters who judged him on his record.

Leaders win when voters trust them on the economy and security. When they lose that trust, they lose their power. And right-wing populists rise and fall by the same rules.

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