Source : ABC NEWS
Since the final ball was bounced in 2025, the AFL landscape has been stirred up, if not shaken completely.
For one, that bounce is no more. Finals have been expanded for the first time since 1994. Stars have found new homes, and clubs have recruited new coaches.
It is fair to say 2026 will be a bit different to 2025 in many ways, but maybe not all.
The one thing this season will have in common with last year is that 17 teams will be furiously trying to chase down the reigning premiers, the Brisbane Lions.
Here is what to watch out for in the AFL year ahead and what sides might emerge to challenge for the 2026 flag.
Catching the Lions
In the end there is only one prize in 2026 — the premiership cup.
Given their presence in the last three grand finals, it is pretty easy to tell any side looking to win the flag will have to get past Brisbane first.
No side has been able to consistently curb the Lions’ game plan, which is built around controlled attack from a solid defensive base.
The amendments to the “stand” rule might make it harder for sides to stop their ability to move the ball up the ground via pinpoint short kicking.
The Lions were the only side with more than 100 short kicks per match last year and they averaged 10 more marks per match than every other side in the competition.
No side has yet to replicate the style of the Lions, but this might be the year some clubs may try.
But the Lions are far from infallible. Brisbane finished third after the home-and-away season last year and lost its first-week final to Geelong by more than six goals.
The Lions were also in trouble against Collingwood in their preliminary final win, before pulling away.
While they are the team to beat, there are plenty of teams capable of doing so on their day.
Just how many teams is a point of some debate heading into the year.
Separation at the top?
If you did not do much more than glance at the ladder last year, you would think the league was split into two groups: nine contenders and nine also-rans.
After several years of increasing parity across the league, last year — on the surface — seemed like a leap back towards the “haves” and “have-nots”.
Once you take a step back to look at the bigger picture, that apparent gap starts to close.
A few unusual effects all conspired to create a gap between ninth and 10th. While the ladder is how you tell if a side did well last year, it is not perfect at working out who will be good next year.
Inequalities in the draw, close matches, goal-kicking accuracy and injuries can all help shape the ladder.
Last year saw several of these factors lean sides towards the edge of the eight and away from those just on the other side.
Take player availability and injuries. Brisbane was the healthiest side in the league last year.
By contrast, Essendon was probably the most disappointing side to the casual fan last year. The Bombers were also the unhealthiest, often struggling to field 23 fit and experienced players.
Teams like Carlton, Port Adelaide, Melbourne and Sydney were all forced to field significantly different teams than they had planned for.
Availability matters more than ever before in the AFL. With depth generally spread across the league more evenly than ever, a handful of critical injuries can shift a team from finals contention.
Many of the sides that underperformed last year were struck by significant injuries, or by underperformance from players in key positions.
History suggests that while certain players are more susceptible to injury, the health and injury prevalence of entire teams tends to bounce around from year to year.
As a result, the impact of injuries is hard to quantify precisely. But there are other areas that are a little easier to break down.
Skill or luck?
Some other factors, such as uneven fixtures, performance in close matches and goal-kicking, can all help to shape the ladder.
Unlike injuries, these are much easier to break down.
ABC Sport has employed tried and true measures to unpick these factors, which might give us a better idea of how teams will travel this year.
These numbers indicate the most likely challengers to the Lions’ crown — notably Geelong, Collingwood, Adelaide and last year’s ninth-placed side, the Western Bulldogs.
The Bulldogs looked like one of the best two or three sides for much of last year, but were struck by injuries, bad luck and a poor record in relatively close matches.
If fit, the Bulldogs could be the side to shoot inside the top four this year.
The factors outlined above also suggest the hard line between top and bottom halves of the ladder was not as rigid as first appears.
For example, the Demons lost six matches by single-digit margins and won none last year. While all teams train for close late-match situations, history tells us extreme over- or under-performance in close matches tends to normalise over time.
Melbourne finished with a percentage of 93.3 per cent and generated more valuable scoring opportunities across the year than they conceded. While your own team’s goal-kicking is rooted in one of the most important skills in footy, opposition goal-kicking is far more luck-oriented.
All together, that is the story of a team that usually wins more than seven matches. While the Demons have lost several key players (more on that later), there might be a cause for more optimism than first appears.
On the other hand, the Giants and Crows were both teams whose opponents generally could not convert well, particularly from set shots.
In theory, set shots are an area the defence has no impact over beyond the height of the man on the mark.
In 2026, if such luck normalises as history suggests, they will have to make up ground in other ways.
Off-field gains
Last year’s trade period also reshuffled the deck league-wide, with stars like Christian Petracca, Charlie Curnow, Tom De Koning and Clayton Oliver finding new clubs.
These new arrivals could go a fair way to shifting the fortune of clubs up and down the ladder.
One club in particular will hope an influx of new talent will change their. St Kilda brought in four key pieces in the off-season — De Koning, Jack Silvagni, Sam Flanders and Liam Ryan — to help revive the fortunes of the club in Ross Lyon’s second stint in charge.
Other clubs — such as Sydney and Gold Coast — moved to bring in players they considered to be their “missing piece”.
Such moves are not without risk, but the rewards could see either club in contention at the pointy end of the year.
There were also two new coaches taking the reins this off-season, with Josh Carr completing his transition from Ken Hinkley at Port Adelaide and Steven King replacing Simon Goodwin at Melbourne.
Carr was previously the senior assistant at the Power and it is not expected there will be radical changes to the way the club sets up and plays.
The early indication of King’s time at Melbourne sees a bit more of a drastic shift, with some core concepts around ball movement, defensive movement, stoppage composition and forward set-up in flux from previous years.
While the Demons have lost players such as Petracca, Oliver, Judd McVee and Steven May, the tactical shifts may go some way to covering their absence.
We have seen sides that change the way they play rewarded with surprisingly swift marches up the ladder in recent years, so all eyes will be on the Demons (and the Power to a lesser degree) in the first six weeks to break down their new style.
The tanking shadow
There is also a hidden subplot hiding in the shadows in the lead-up to the season: player management.
Although the league is largely rid of the overt tanking that besieged the bottom of the ladder in the early part of the century, there are still sides that seemingly put the cue in the rack when they find themselves out of finals contention.
This year looks particularly ripe for such manipulation. This year’s draft is the last before the Devils enter the competition and as such is the last uncompromised draft crop.
This prospective draft class also looks strong, even considering the talent already tied to clubs via the academies and father-son rule.
Clubs were hesitant to trade last year’s draft picks for this year’s crop, given the relative strength of each class.
The big hedge against this is the introduction of an expanded finals series. With 10 teams set to make the cut, few sides will feel finals are truly beyond them before the first siren is sounded.
The appeal of increasing the number of sides that make the cut for the second season is clear: two extra high-rating and high-drawing matches for the AFL to sell to clubs, broadcasters and commercial partners.
The path for expansion — with an extra round of matches — creates four different major tiers of finals achievement.
Teams will still fight to finish in the top two and four, but now places five and six on the ladder will have extra appeal too, as the new system represents a hit to the chances of the seventh and eighth-placed teams.
These races within races may create extra intrigue as finals participation is confirmed as the season winds down.
But while more teams will be in the hunt for finals, the risk is that over time, the exclusivity and prestige of finals may dwindle and neutral fans may not switch fully on until the second or third weeks of finals.
Regardless of the bigger chance of finals, early season injuries or poor form might see future development prioritised instead of current results for some clubs.
