source : the age
February 25, 2026 — 12:01am
Every year, Australia returns to a well-known saying that movement may be halted, housing demand is high, and the pressure on the public services, facilities, and other things needs to slow down.
The tale is resurfacing right now, fueled by worries about revenues, traffic, and the cost of living.
Many of the worries come from estimates that have frequently understated how many people live here and how rapidly Australia is expanding.
What does the phrase” very quickly” when referring to population growth mean?
There isn’t a set benchmark in place. No unique amount.
When housing offer falls behind demand, infrastructure gaps, or planning processes fail to keep up, growth is characterized as occurring very quickly.
Rents rise, prices rise, and pressure builds when new housing construction didn’t suit household formation.
However, it’s more often than not whether people expansion is actually occurring; rather, it’s how we planned for it. Additionally, it is a significant discussion.
How we build our homes, plan our cities, invest in system, and maintain our economy are all affected by population growth.
But we must make sure we are measuring it correctly before arguing about speed.
Very frequently, the real issue is not the argument; rather, it is the supporting data.
State population projections have been consistently incorrect for years.
Not by accident, but regularly.
They have consistently undervalued the importance of immigration and population growth, as well as the importance of movement to economic growth.
Australia’s post-COVID community growth has been underestimated 15 days out of a possible 17 across the Commonwealth’s final five Population Statements.
These undercounts are important because scheme that is based on false projections results in incorrect decisions.
Some of the variances were minor, and the speech from 2024 came closest to meeting the mark.
However, forecast gaps have tended to get bigger over period.
The routine belief that people growth returns to its long-term pattern and that stronger development is transitory, something to drive out rather than plan for, contributes to the issue.
By the end of the decade, the 2025 Population Statement anticipates a 1.3 % growth rate by June 2026, compared to the predicted 1.3 percent increase from the previous year, or roughly 100, 000 fewer people.
That holds a lot of money captive.
By limiting experienced relocation, governments could force that result.
But how much does this price to financial growth?
Australia’s market is a demand-driven, tightly connected to prosperity force known as net outside migration.
Movement accounts for roughly half of the country’s overall economic growth over the past 20 years.
” We are debating movement as if it were optional or temporary while planning housing, system, and service using projections that repeatedly underestimate truth.”
Not at all. Persistently.
It has increased the number of workers, increased production, and strengthened companies in areas of healthcare, education, and small business.
Migration promotes jobs across all skill levels, ages, and genders without having negative wage effects, according to the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre’s most recent findings.
Western Australia is also aware of this.
Its capital-intensive, export-oriented, and continuous economy depends on migration to clean labor shortages, stabilize growth, and encourage local advancement.
Without it, wages would have been higher, growth would have been slower, and efficiency would have been sluggish.
Australia’s reproduction rate is also continuing to decline.
This is not periodic. It has a fundamental foundation.
In later life, more Australians are having children, with some choosing not to have them or wanting to but being unable to do so.
Yet well-designed community policies are unlikely to significantly slow this trend.
The effects have long-term effects on the workforce, the tax base, and the viability of essential service, and they call for a more significant national discussion about community and fertility issues.
Functional economic policy is what is being discussed here, no sentimental or morally correct.
Cheap childcare, high-quality reproductive care, safe housing, versatile work, current parental leave, and better support for women who balance their careers and caregiving are no longer cultural extras.
They are necessary for the economy.
Natural population growth is no longer able to carry out the big pulling it once did.
The connect is right around.
We are debating movement as if it were optional or temporary while planning casing, infrastructure, and services using projections that constantly overlook reality.
It’s not either.
Migration is presently a fundamental force behind economic expansion.
None of this negates the true pressure placed on housing, transportation, and public companies, particularly in rapidly expanding says like Victoria, Queensland, and Western Australia.
However, movement alone does not cause these pressures.
When people development surpasses the availability of housing, infrastructure, and planning system responsiveness, they occur.
In the year to June 2025, really under 174, 000 homes were built, which is far below the 240, 000 annual target of the National Housing Accord.
Australia may fall about one-third of a million homes little of the 1.2 million fresh constructions promised by the Accord by June 2029 at this rate.
This is a source issue for housing, not a migration issue.
Lower people forecasts may work as a stress valve, removing both the urgency needed to address the problem and the scale of the challenge.
We did keep building too much, too soon, and then blaming movement for the outcomes if projections continue to undercount fact.
A more open-minded discussion is required. one that recognizes the need for appropriate inhabitants forecasting as an essential component of the economic infrastructure, as well as the long-term constraint of migration as a necessary financial necessity, and of declining fertility as a long-term constraint.
Not getting the figures right did solve every problem.
However, making them incorrect will keep the conversation from going on.
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Since 2013, Professor Alan Duncan has been in charge of the Bankwest Curtin Economics Centre at Curtin University. He has also recently served as the University of Canberra’s National Centre for Social and Economic Modelling.