Source : the age
Bookmakers and punters believe Anthony Albanese is on his way to a second term as prime minister with Labor given a better than a four-in-five chance of victory even as Peter Dutton says he can form a majority Coalition government.
A breakdown of odds offered by betting agencies and prediction markets suggest Albanese will not only become the first Labor prime minister to win back-to-back elections since Bob Hawke, but that he could do it without a net loss of seats from his 2022 victory.
Prime Minister Anthony Albanese visits a Chinese language school in the Melbourne suburb of Wheelers Hill on Saturday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen
Of the nation’s 150 electorates, Labor is now favourite in 77, which is the same number as Albanese’s side won at the 2022 poll.
One of the largest prediction markets, Polymarket, now has $2 million on the outcome of the Australian election with Labor given an 83 per cent chance of victory. On March 30, Polymarket had the Coalition a 51 per cent chance of victory.
On markets for total seats won, the Coalition is expected to secure between 61 and 65. Several bookmakers have Labor to win between 76 and 80, with the next most likely result between 71 and 75, which would likely enable Albanese to helm a minority government.
Bookmakers are agreed on changes to just a handful of seats. All believe Aston, which Labor’s Mary Doyle won from the Coalition at a byelection in 2023, and Gilmore on the NSW south coast, will go to the Liberals on May 3.
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton at a Cairns cafe on Saturday with Liberal candidate Jeremy Neal.Credit: James Brickwood
Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is also tipped to take back the Victorian seat of Kooyong and Ryan in Queensland.
Dutton, who started his campaigning on Saturday in the marginal Coalition-held seat of Leichhardt in northern Queensland, said polls showed up to one in three Australians were undecided or “soft voters”, and people were still weighing their options.
While polls may show soft votes, more than 1.8 million people had by Anzac Day cast a pre-poll ballot while 500,000 had returned a postal vote. In some electorates, such as Hinkler in Queensland and Gilmore in NSW, more than 18 per cent of people have voted.
According to Dutton, there were a “lot of quiet Australians” across outer suburbs and cities who saw the Coalition as the best managers of the economy and the only party able to bring down the price of food.
“I think this election is going to be decided this week. I think [Albanese’s] taking it for granted. I think there is a lot of anger in the suburbs,” he said.
“I do believe that we can form a majority government.”
Asked if long-shot seats such as Labor-held Whitlam (NSW) and Gorton (Victoria) would fall to the Coalition, Dutton said: “The short answer is yes.”
“Albanese has prioritised the interests of Green voters in inner-city Sydney and Melbourne, many of whom are quite affluent, and he’s abandoned people in regions and in the outer suburbs,” Dutton said.
Dutton will on Sunday hold a campaign rally in the outer-Melbourne electorate of Hawke, held by Labor’s Sam Rae on a margin of 7.6 per cent, in a suburban fringe zone dominated by the debate over the proposed Melbourne Airport rail line.
But bookies also believe the Nationals’ seat of Cowper on the NSW north coast will be won by an independent, while the Coalition is only a 50-50 chance of retaining the northern Sydney seat of Bradfield.
Labor is expected to win back the seat of Brisbane, which was picked up by the Greens in 2022. In a tight race, Labor is also favourite to hold the Sydney seat of Bennelong, which a redistribution has made notionally Liberal.
Albanese, who started Saturday in the Labor-held seat of Chisholm and accompanied by his candidate for the nearby seat of Deakin (held by the Liberals), said only the government was delivering enduring cost-of-living relief to all Australians.
“We are offering permanent income tax reductions. [Dutton is] offering permanent income tax increases and in addition, any short-term measures are just that,” he said.
There are many seats where bookmakers have different favourites or the odds are close. They include Chisholm, Macnamara, McEwen, Lyons, Lingiari and Wills, all held by Labor
But the Coalition is also only the marginal favourite in a series of electorates including Wannon, Moore, Deakin and Leichhardt.
Famously, Sportsbet paid out early in 2019 and lost at least $5 million when its odds had then-Labor leader Bill Shorten winning that year’s election.
Despite the 2019 result, the favourite has won every other election since betting markets started ahead of the 2001 poll.
While bookmakers were largely accurate in the 2022 election, some outsiders did win. In several seats, surprise victories by the Greens caught out punters, including Stephen Bates, who was a $9 outsider in the seat of Brisbane and beat Labor’s Madonna Jarrett, who was the $1.75 favourite.
Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.
